\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff09<\/a><\/p>\n\u9664\u4e86\u5a01\u5ec9\u00b7\u5965\u5c3c\u5c14\u3001\u5409\u59c6\u00b7\u7f57\u6770\u65af\u3001\u65af\u5766\u5229\u00b7\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u3001\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u6797\u5947\u3001\u6c83\u4f26\u00b7\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u548c\u672c\u6770\u660e\u00b7\u683c\u96f7\u5384\u59c6\u7b49\u77e5\u540d\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff0c\u540d\u5355\u4e0a\u8fd8\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4e0d\u4e3a\u4eba\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u8bfb\u8005\u6700\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n
\u524d\u4e94\u4f4d\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff1a<\/b><\/p>\n\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af \u00a0\u00a0Richard Dennis<\/h4>\n
\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f20\u5947\u7684\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u3002\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u65e9\u671f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86 1,600 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8d37\u6b3e\uff0c\u636e\u8bf4\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u540e\u7684\u5927\u7ea6 10 \u5e74\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5df2\u5c06\u5176\u589e\u52a0\u5230 2 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af\u8fd8\u4e0e\u5a01\u5ec9\u57c3\u514b\u54c8\u7279\u5408\u4f5c\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u8457\u540d\u7684\u6d77\u9f9f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8ba1\u5212\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8be5\u9879\u76ee\u662f\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af\u575a\u4fe1\u4eba\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u50cf\u5b66\u4e60\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u6280\u80fd\u4e00\u6837\u5b66\u4e60\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u57c3\u514b\u54c8\u7279\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u3002\u4e8e\u662f\u4e24\u4eba\u5f00\u5c55\u4e86\u4e00\u9879\u5b9e\u9a8c\uff0c\u57f9\u8bad\u4e86 14 \u540d\u6ca1\u6709\u4e13\u4e1a\u4ea4\u6613\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u5e74\u8f7b\u4eba\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u6559\u7ed9\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e00\u4e2a\u671f\u8d27\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u6a21\u62df\u9636\u6bb5\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u5341\u540d\u6700\u4f73\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u88ab\u5141\u8bb8\u4f7f\u7528\u771f\u94b1\u8fdb\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u3002\u5728\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u7684\u56db\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86 80% \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u3002\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u4eca\u5929\u4ecd\u7136\u4ece\u4e8b\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\u6700\u597d\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u6709\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/www.mingyun.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/Pasted-1.png\")
<\/p>\n
\u8868\u683c\u663e\u793a\u4e86 14 \u4f4d\u6d77\u9f9f\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002<\/i><\/p>\n
\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u00b7\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af \u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a 100% \u57fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u4e00\u4e2a 100% \u57fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219\u7684\u9000\u51fa\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u8fd9\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u8d8b\u52bf\u8ddf\u8e2a\u7b56\u7565\u4e5f\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u4f7f\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af\u6210\u4e3a\u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u6559\u7ec3\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5b83\u4e3a\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u6240\u77e5\uff0c\u4f7f\u7528\u5b83\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u4f18\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af \u00a0\u00a0Michael Marcus<\/h4>\n
\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u4f20\u5947\u7684\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff0c\u636e\u8bf4\u4ed6\u5728\u4e0d\u5230 20 \u5e74\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u91cc\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7b14 30,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u53d8\u6210\u4e86 8000 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u5411 Ed Seykota \u5b66\u4e60\u8d44\u91d1\u7ba1\u7406\u89c4\u5219\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u62c5\u4efb\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u65f6\u9047\u5230\u4e86\u4ed6\u3002\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u6700\u7ec8\u6210\u4e3a Commodities \u7684\u6267\u884c\u526f\u603b\u88c1<\/p>\n
\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u300a\u9884\u8a00\u5bb6\uff1a\u4e00\u7fa4\u7279\u7acb\u72ec\u884c\u7684\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u6df7\u6c8c\u7406\u8bba\u5728\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u4ea4\u6613\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u300b\u4e2d\u88ab\u4f5c\u5bb6\u6258\u9a6c\u65af\u00b7\u5df4\u65af\uff08Thomas A Bass\uff09\u63a8\u8350\u3002\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u8fd8\u5728\u300a\u5e02\u573a\u5947\u624d\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u4e2d\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u6770\u514b\u65bd\u74e6\u683c\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\u3002\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u88ab\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u5e02\u573a\u6e17\u900f\u548c\u963b\u529b\u201d\u7684\u56fe\u8868\u5e08\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u8fd8\u521b\u7acb\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u516c\u53f8 Canmarc Trading\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u6295\u8d44\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u516c\u53f8\u5e76\u5728\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u9886\u57df\u8fdb\u884c\u79c1\u52df\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8fd9\u89e3\u91ca\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u3002\u5728\u4ed6\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u8bbe\u6cd5\u5728\u5f88\u77ed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u5c06\u4ed6\u7684\u8d44\u672c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8fd1\u767e\u500d\u3002\u540e\u6765\u4ed6\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u4ed6\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u548c\u7f51\u7edc\u53c2\u4e0e\u5c0f\u76d8\u80a1\u9886\u57df\u7684\u79c1\u52df\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u8fd9\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u5229\u53ef\u56fe\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u53ea\u5bf9\u6781\u5c11\u6570\u4eba\u5f00\u653e\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u62e5\u6709\u5408\u9002\u7f51\u7edc\u5e76\u8fdb\u5165\u8be5\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0e\u7406\u67e5\u5fb7\u4e39\u5c3c\u65af\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u6ca1\u6709\u8ffd\u6c42\u6563\u6237\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u590d\u5236\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6770\u5f17\u91cc\u00b7\u4f0d\u5fb7\u91cc\u592b \u00a0\u00a0Jaffray Woodriff<\/h4>\n
Woodriff \u662f\u4ef7\u503c 30 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1 Quantitative Investment Management (QIM) \u7684\u8054\u5408\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u517c\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u3002<\/p>\n
QIM \u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u6258\u7ba1\u671f\u8d27\u9886\u57df\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
Woodriff \u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6536\u5165\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u7ecf\u7406\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u65b9\u6cd5\u77e5\u4e4b\u751a\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4ece\u4e8b\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u4e13\u4e1a\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4e2d\uff0cWoodriff \u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u4f4d\u8dfb\u8eab\u5168\u7403\u524d\u4e09\u540d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4e0e\u6c83\u4f26\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7b49\u5927\u591a\u6570\u77e5\u540d\u8d44\u4ea7\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4ed6\u5e76\u4e0d\u91c7\u53d6\u7eaf\u7cb9\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u975e\u5e38\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u4ed6\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u5de8\u989d\u8d44\u91d1\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u83b7\u5f97\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5e03\u9c81\u65af\u00b7\u79d1\u592b\u7eb3 \u00a0\u00a0Bruce Kovner<\/h4>\n
\u6839\u636e\u4f5c\u5bb6\u6770\u514b\u65bd\u74e6\u683c\u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u79d1\u592b\u7eb3\u5728\u5176\u804c\u4e1a\u751f\u6daf\u4e2d\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u94f6\u884c\u95f4\u8d27\u5e01\u548c\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u5168\u7403\u5b8f\u89c2\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1 Caxton Associates \u7684\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u517c\u8463\u4e8b\u957f\u3002\u5728\u7ba1\u7406\u8be5\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1 30 \u591a\u5e74\u540e\uff0c\u79d1\u592b\u7eb3\u4e8e 2011 \u5e74\u4ece\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1\u9000\u4f11\u3002<\/p>\n
\u79d1\u592b\u7eb3\u7528\u4ed6\u7684\u4e07\u4e8b\u8fbe\u5361\u501f\u4e86 3,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u6765\u62bc\u6ce8\u5927\u8c46\u671f\u8d27\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5408\u7ea6\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u589e\u52a0\u5230 40,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u968f\u540e\u8fd4\u8fd8\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6536\u76ca\u3002\u79d1\u592b\u7eb3\u4ee5\u201c\u4ec5\u201d23,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5229\u6da6\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u51e0\u4e4e\u662f\u4ed6\u6700\u521d\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u516b\u500d\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u8bfe\u2014\u2014\u201c\u98ce\u9669\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u5728\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7\u9a6c\u5e93\u65af\u7684\u5e26\u9886\u4e0b\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u751f\u6daf\uff0c\u8d5a\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e00\u767e\u4e07\uff0c\u5e76\u7531\u6b64\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u6700\u521d\u7684\u540d\u58f0\u3002\u8fd9\u7b14\u8d44\u91d1\u4f7f\u4ed6\u80fd\u591f\u521b\u529e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5bf9\u51b2\u57fa\u91d1Caxton Associates\u3002<\/p>\n
1987 \u5e74\uff0c\u4ed6\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u6da6\u8d85\u8fc7 3 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u79d1\u592b\u7eb3\u5728 1989 \u5e74\u88ab\u300a\u5e02\u573a\u5947\u624d\u300b\u4e00\u4e66\u6536\u5f55\u4e4b\u524d\u7684 10 \u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u590d\u5408\u56de\u62a5\u7387\u4e3a 87% \u00a0\u00a0\u30021978 \u5e74\u521d\uff0c\u5728\u79d1\u592b\u7eb3\u6295\u8d44 2,000 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u5341\u5e74\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u590d\u5408\u56de\u62a5\u7684\u9b54\u529b\u589e\u957f\u5230\u8d85\u8fc7 1,000,000 \u7f8e\u5143.<\/p>\n
\u5170\u8fea\u00b7\u9ea6\u57fa \u00a0\u00a0Randy McKay<\/h4>\n
Randy McKay \u662f\u4e00\u4f4d\u975e\u5e38\u6210\u529f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u5458\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u751f\u6daf\u59cb\u4e8e\u5728\u5f53\u65f6\u65b0\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\u671f\u8d27\u5e02\u573a\u5c06 2,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u53d8\u6210 70,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002Randy McKay \u6700\u7ec8\u5728 20 \u5e74\u5185\u5c06\u4ed6\u4e0d\u5230 10,000 \u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u80a1\u4efd\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7 1000 \u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/p>\n
McKay \u7684\u98ce\u683c\u4e0e\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4ee5\u975e\u5e38\u89c4\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f7f\u7528\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4ed6\u6210\u529f\u7684\u5173\u952e\u56e0\u7d20\u3002<\/p>\n
\u201c\u6211\u4ee5\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4e3a\u80cc\u666f\u89c2\u5bdf\u5e02\u573a\u8d70\u52bf\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u4f7f\u7528\u4f20\u7edf\u610f\u4e49\u4e0a\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u9762\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6211\u89c2\u5bdf\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002\u201d\u00a0\u2014\u2014\u00a0Randy McKay\uff08\u6770\u514b\u00b7\u65bd\u74e6\u683c\u7684\u300a\u5e02\u573a\u5947\u624d\u300b\uff09<\/p>\n
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